2026 WM Phoenix Open Preview

We’ve officially turned the calendar to February, and the PGA TOUR is now trading the Pacific coastlines for the desert once again, arriving in Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open, an event just as famous for its atmosphere as it is for the golf itself. Known interchangeably as “The Greatest Show on Grass” and “The People’s Open,” this stop at TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course brings the TOUR back to a desert venue for the second time in three weeks, but with a very different test awaiting the field. The Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish design, later reworked by Weiskopf in 2014, is a par 71 that stretches to nearly 7,300 yards, featuring generous fairways, expansive greens, and putting surfaces built on Bermudagrass and overseeded with Poa Annua and Bentgrass that typically play firm and fast this time of year. While the Phoenix Open once leaned heavily toward a putting contest and low scores, the redesign has shifted the emphasis toward ball-striking, rewarding players who consistently flush it off the tee and dial in their irons. That’s why this week’s lens focuses on Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Approach, and Ball Striking, along with Greens in Regulation, scrambling, par-4 and par-5 efficiency, and proximity from 150 to 200 yards. There’s no single blueprint for success here, but history shows a clear bias toward elite tee-to-green performers, including names like Scheffler, Fowler, Matsuyama, and Koepka as perfect fits of that mold, with Scheffler, Koepka, and Matsuyama each lifting the trophy twice. In other words, the results at TPC Scottsdale, unlike several other tournaments in today’s golf landscape, tend to feature the same profiles and players reappearing on the top of the leaderboard year after year. That consistency has revealed intriguing crossover form with other demanding ball-striking venues such as TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill, Pinehurst No. 2, Harbour Town, Colonial Country Club, and even Black Desert Resort in Southern Utah, which happens to be another notable Weiskopf creation. In a week where the noise and energy can feel overwhelming, the formula remains simple: control the golf ball, stay patient, and let elite ball-striking cut through the chaos. With that in mind, here's some of the key names to keep an eye on with plenty of success at this tournament: Scottie Scheffler Scottie will once again be the gravitational center of the field and the standard everyone else is quietly measuring themselves against in Scottsdale. The world’s top golfer has turned the WM Phoenix Open into one of his most reliable stops, and his history here reads like a case study in fit and familiarity. After an early missed cut in his debut, Scheffler has posted a T7, back-to-back wins in 2022 and 2023, a T3 in 2024, and a more pedestrian T25 last year that still felt like a “down week” only by his own absurd standards. That kind of baseline consistency speaks to how well his game translates to TPC Scottsdale’s post-redesign demands. Ball-striking remains the currency here, and Scheffler continues to print it at an almost uncomfortable rate. Like I’ve mentioned just a couple of weeks ago before he won the American Express, he led the TOUR last season in Strokes Gained: Total, Tee-to-Green, and Approach, paired with elite proximity numbers from every key yardage range and a scoring average that separated him from the rest of the field. Even when he misses greens, his scrambling, especially from the rough, keeps rounds from ever unraveling. Add in a 2026 season-opening win at the American Express, and there’s no sign of regression. At this point, it often feels like the tournament begins with the question of who can keep Scheffler in sight through Sunday afternoon. That said, dominance at this level has a way of warping expectations. Picking him is obvious, almost too obvious, and while it would surprise no one to see Scheffler lifting the trophy for a third time, there’s a lingering sense that this might be one of those weeks where someone else catches fire in the desert, even as Scheffler once again finishes firmly in the mix. Hideki Matsuyama Like Scottie, Hideki has that familiar kind of quiet confidence at TPC Scottsdale, the type that tends to follow him whenever the Tour calendar circles back to places where his ball-striking history is too loud to ignore. Like Scottie Scheffler, Matsuyama is chasing a third WM Phoenix Open title, and few players in the modern era have a deeper relationship with TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course. His resumé here is front-loaded with dominance, including four straight top-four finishes from 2014-17, highlighted by back-to-back playoff victories in 2016 and 2017, but even in more recent years, the comfort level has never fully disappeared. While the finishes since then, outside of his lone top-10 finish being a T8 in 2022, haven’t matched his early peak, Matsuyama continues to show flashes that align perfectly with what this course now demands. Statistically, his profile remains built for Scottsdale’s post-redesign identity. He ranks among the TOUR’s best in approach proximity across multiple yardage buckets, sits inside the top 25 in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green, and remains one of the strongest short-game players in the field, ranking top five in SG: Around the Green and second in sand save percentage. That blend matters here, especially with firm, fast desert greens that reward precise iron play and creativity when misses do happen. After opening 2026 with top-15 finishes in both Hawaii and San Diego, Matsuyama is making his third start of the season at a venue where familiarity often breeds confidence. Like Scheffler, the path to another win isn’t guaranteed, and it’s wise to keep an eye on breakout candidates. Still, if there’s one place where Matsuyama’s long-term comfort could translate into a serious Sunday push, or even a return to the winner’s circle, it’s here. Maverick McNealy Maverick McNealy heads back to TPC Scottsdale looking more and more like a player who belongs in the conversation every time this event rolls around, and his steady climb over the past two seasons makes him one of the more intriguing names in the field. This will be his fourth start at the WM Phoenix Open, and he’s been nothing but impressive on the Stadium Course the last two seasons, finishing T6 in 2024 and T9 last year. He’s someone who has quietly become one of the most improved golfers on TOUR, and he wrapped up 2025 with seven top-10 finishes, 12 top-25s, and a runner-up finish at the Genesis, consistently putting himself in contention at both signature events and elevated fields. His ball-striking still isn’t flashy compared to the elite bombers, but his all-around profile has become far more complete, especially when it comes to scoring and resilience. Putting remains the backbone of his success, as he ranked inside the top 30 in many putting statistics last year, a massive advantage on Scottsdale’s firm, overseeded greens where birdie chances are plentiful but conversions separate contenders from pretenders. He also excels at capitalizing on momentum, ranking highly in bounce-back percentage and total birdies, while his scrambling from 10-20 yards gives him a safety net when approaches miss these large but deceptively tricky greens. Early signs in 2026 have been encouraging as well, with a top-10 at Torrey Pines followed by a respectable showing in La Quinta. McNealy may not command headlines the way some of the TOUR’s biggest stars do, but his consistency here is impossible to ignore. With two straight top-10s at the WM Phoenix Open and a game that continues to mature, this feels like another spot where he can comfortably live near the top of the leaderboard and potentially flirt with a long-awaited breakthrough on one of the TOUR’s loudest stages. Now, let’s look at my best predictions for who I believe will play the best in front of the biggest crowds: 3. Top 20 Finish: Jake Knapp Knapp was a popular pick for me in a few tournaments last season, and while some of those results didn’t fully pay off, the underlying fits never really went away at courses where ball striking is key. Now, the form is catching up, and the early returns in 2026 have been encouraging. A T11 at the Sony Open followed by a top-five at the Farmers Insurance Open suggests Knapp has carried his momentum over, and that matters heading to a place like TPC Scottsdale. This is a course that rewards players who can lean on power, generate birdie chances, and stay aggressive on the par 4s and par 5s, and Knapp checks all three boxes. He ranked top-five on Tour in Par 5 scoring last season, sits among the leaders in Birdie or Better percentage, and pairs that scoring upside with above-average length off the tee. Scottsdale has also trended more toward ball-striking since the redesign, and while Knapp’s iron play doesn’t always steal headlines, his ability to turn opportunities into red numbers does. He was top 15 in Strokes Gained: Putting in 2025 and elite from inside 10 feet, which is a major asset on fast desert greens where birdie conversion matters more than survival. Add in strong going for the green numbers and solid scrambling from distance, and you get a profile built to hang around the leaderboard all week. Knapp’s history here, which consisted of a T28 in 2024 and a T44 in 2025, doesn’t jump off the page, but context matters. He’s a better, more confident player now, coming off a season with nine top-25s and four top-10s. There’s plenty of reasons to think of why many people, including myself, envision another successful week for Knapp, and I fully expect him to find the top-20 once again with legitimate upside if his ball striking continues to roll and the putter heats up early. 2. Top 10 Finish: Ben Griffin Ben Griffin is one of the safest golfers to lean on in any tournament on TOUR, especially after his promising breakout campaign in 2025, and although he hasn’t quite been successful here in the past, he now arrives at TPC Scottsdale ranked ninth in the OWGR after a 2025 season that firmly established him among the TOUR’s elite, completely opposite from a year ago. Three wins, two runner-up finishes, and 12 top-10s in 30 starts is the definition of sustained excellence, not a hot streak, and that consistency matters on a course where ball-striking and repeatable scoring tend to separate contenders from pretenders. Statistically, Griffin checks nearly every box this week. He finished 2025 top-five in Strokes Gained: Total, top-six in scoring average, and top-five in par-3 scoring, an underrated edge at TPC Scottsdale, where holes like the 16th can swing momentum fast. His birdie-making ability pairs perfectly with a Stadium Course setup that still rewards aggression, even with its increased emphasis on tee-to-green precision since the redesign. Griffin’s balanced profile, which showed solid performances off the tee, strong showings on his approach shots, and quietly positive with the putting, which fits that “no weak links” mold that past champions here have shared. While his Phoenix Open finishes to date don’t jump off the page, where he finished T28 and T36 in his first two showings respectively, context matters. Those results came before his leap into elite-tier form. Since then, Griffin has proven he can contend on demanding setups, highlighted by runner-up finishes at the Memorial and Procore, plus top-10s in both the US Open and PGA Championship. Early 2026 results have been steady rather than spectacular, but this feels like a natural inflection point. Picking Griffin for a top 10 is one on reliability, elite scoring upside, and a player still ascending, and that’s something worth taking in the desert. 1. Winner: Chris Gotterup I might not be picking the heavy favorite this week, but I’m going to rock with a young star who reminds me of Scottie quite a bit. That player is Chris Gotterup, who has vaulted into a completely different tier over the last eight months. What began as a breakthrough win at the Genesis Scottish Open quickly turned into sustained elite play, highlighted by a third-place finish at The Open, top-10s at the TOUR Championship and 3M Open, and a steady stream of high-end results against strong fields. That momentum has carried seamlessly into 2026, where the former Oklahoma Sooner already owns a win at the Sony Open and a solid T18 at Torrey Pines. Statistically, this course asks for exactly what Gotterup does best. He’s one of the longest and most efficient drivers on TOUR, ranking seventh in driving distance and ninth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, a massive edge on a Stadium Course that rewards aggressive tee shots and confident iron play. His scoring profile is quietly elite as well, sitting top 10 in scoring average and par-4 scoring, with strong bogey avoidance and a willingness to attack par 5s. That combination matters more at TPC Scottsdale than it did in the birdie-fest era, especially since the redesign shifted the emphasis toward ball-striking over pure putting. Yes, I know his course history here is ugly with two missed cuts in two starts, but those came before Gotterup became the complete, confident player he is now. This version of Gotterup is battle-tested, comfortable in elite fields, and proven in pressure moments. I love this spot for him to out-duel Scottie, grab his second win of 2026, solidify his legitimacy as one of the TOUR’s best.